SWOV Catalogus


Forecasting e-scooter substitution of direct and access trips by mode and distance.
20210433 ST [electronic version only]
Lee, M. Chow, J.Y.J. Yoon, G. & Yueshuai He, B.
Transportation Research Part D - Transport and Environment, Vol. 96 (July 2021), Article 102892, 15 p., ref.

Samenvatting An e-scooter trip model is estimated from four U.S. cities: Portland, Austin, Chicago and New York City. A log–log regression model is estimated for e-scooter trips based on user age, population, land area, and the number of scooters. The model predicts 75 K daily e-scooter trips in Manhattan for a deployment of 2000 scooters, which translates to 77 million USD in annual revenue. We propose a novel nonlinear, multifactor model to break down the number of daily trips by the alternative modes of transportation that they would likely substitute based on statistical similarity. The model parameters reveal a relationship with direct trips of bike, walk, carpool, automobile and taxi as well as access/egress trips with public transit in Manhattan. Our model estimates that e-scooters could replace 32% of carpool; 13% of bike; and 7.2% of taxi trips. The distance structure of revenue from access/egress trips is found to differ from that of other substituted trips. (Author/publisher)
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